Overland Track Weather - 25th to 28th of May | Growing Inconsistencies
Overland Track Forecast: Pelion Hut Area
Disclaimer & Safety Waiver Important: Read Before Using These Forecasts.
These weather outlooks are provided by an amateur enthusiast with a high level of interest in meteorology and extensive on-track experience as a hiking guide. I am not a qualified or professional meteorologist, and these forecasts are not official predictions.
They are interpretive insights based on multiple weather models, personal observations, and knowledge of local microclimates on the Overland Track. Weather in Tasmania's mountains is highly variable and can change rapidly—forecasts can be wrong, and conditions on the ground may differ significantly.
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All hiking and outdoor activities involve inherent risks, including exposure to severe weather, hypothermia, slips on wet/icy terrain, wind-related hazards, dehydration, and other dangers.
You participate entirely at your own risk.
This content is for informational and planning purposes only—it does not constitute professional weather advice, safety guarantees, or liability for any decisions you make.
You must independently verify conditions with official sources (e.g., Bureau of Meteorology at bom.gov.au, Tasmania Parks & Wildlife Service alerts, and local rangers).
Always carry appropriate gear, inform others of your plans, and be prepared to turn back or seek shelter if conditions deteriorate. In emergencies, call 000.
No warranty is made regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of this information. Use at your own discretion.
Overview (4-Day Summary):
Interestingly for this time of year, a high pressure system is passing below the state, while a low pressure system is about to hit Adelaide then track towards Sydney as the week progresses. We are seeing temperatures stabilise around 10°C during the days which is similar to last week, however overnight temperatures will be anywhere between 6-8°C, a good few degrees warmer than last week. As far as rain goes, there isn’t anything significant forecast, forecasting models are showing inconsistencies for Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday looks a certain 2-3mm, Thursday looks inconsistent too. Overall it looks a cracking week weather wise to be on the track. I hope this forecast can provide you with a little more information than a very indecisive BOM forecast for this week. Enjoy!
Daily Breakdown:
Day 1: Monday 25th of May 2026
Temperature: Highs of 9-11°C. Overnight lows of 5-7°C.
Wind: Light south easterlies.
Precipitation: Very inconsistent across forecasting models. Most are predicting between 1-3mm. However, BOMs most accurate model (ACCESSC-VT) is not predicting any rain at all. Looking at the weather maps, I’d expect some pockets of rain to be around the track, whether or not they hit you or 1km away.
Weather Systems: Slight low pressure trough passing the state.
Cloud Cover: Expect low cloud all day, I suspect there will be the occasional pocket of sunlight shining through.
Day 2: Tuesday 26th of May 2026
Temperature: Highs of 8°C. Overnight lows of 6-7°C.
Wind: Light south easterlies, building slightly with the day
Precipitation: Again, inconsistent across models. Either 0mm or some scattered showers, not amounting to more than 2mm
Weather Systems: High pressure.
Cloud Cover: Mixed bag here, models are forecasting cloud at all three levels. Which suggests instabilities in the atmosphere, which makes it easier for rain producing clouds to form.
Day 3: Wednesday 27th of May 2026
Temperature: Highs of 10-11°C. Overnight lows of 6-8°C.
Wind: Light south easterlies, building slightly with the day
Precipitation: 2-4mm. At this stage it looks to be falling after 4pm according to the BOM models. However, ECMFW (A highly regarding European Model) is suggesting all day drizzle, building in the afternoon and stopping by 7pm.
Weather Systems: Pressuring dropping.
Cloud Cover: Low cloud all day.
Day 4: Thursday 28st of May 2026
Temperature: Highs of 11-13°C. Overnight lows of 3-6°C.
Wind: Light westerlies, shifting to light northerlies.
Precipitation: 0-1mm. As inconsistent as all other days. BOM is predicting the afternoon.
Weather Systems: Pressure continuing to drop.
Cloud Cover: Low cloud all day.
Advice from a Guide:
This is a very inconsistent forecast. We are getting to a time of year when atmospheric stability is less common. Forecasting models this week are finding it hard this week to predict the same thing. Which, to me, is worrying because you can trust the forecast less. Trust your instinct this week, and always make the more conservative decision.
You’ll wake up slicked with condensation this week, if you’re in tents. Bring a chux cloth to wipe down the inside of you’re tent when you wake up. If planning to sleep in tents all week, consider a synthetic sleeping bag.
The creeks will be brimming with water, check your map for crossings to reduce your carried water weight.
As far as summits go this week - All days, except Wednesday look decent for a summit attempt. Although in the clouds.
The more humid (cloudy) mornings will likely feel quiet cold. Humid air conducts heat away from your body more effectively than dry air. Don’t be afraid to start in layers. ‘Be bold - start cold’ doesn’t always make for enjoyable walking.
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