Overland Track Weather - 23rd to 26th of March 2026 | Winter is closing in
Overland Track Forecast: Pelion Hut Area
Disclaimer & Safety Waiver Important: Read Before Using These Forecasts
These weather outlooks are provided by an amateur enthusiast with a high level of interest in meteorology and extensive on-track experience as a hiking guide. I am not a qualified or professional meteorologist, and these forecasts are not official predictions.
They are interpretive insights based on multiple weather models, personal observations, and knowledge of local microclimates on the Overland Track. Weather in Tasmania's mountains is highly variable and can change rapidly—forecasts can be wrong, and conditions on the ground may differ significantly.
By reading or using this information, you acknowledge and agree tha
All hiking and outdoor activities involve inherent risks, including exposure to severe weather, hypothermia, slips on wet/icy terrain, wind-related hazards, dehydration, and other dangers.
You participate entirely at your own risk.
This content is for informational and planning purposes only—it does not constitute professional weather advice, safety guarantees, or liability for any decisions you make.
You must independently verify conditions with official sources (e.g., Bureau of Meteorology at bom.gov.au, Tasmania Parks & Wildlife Service alerts, and local rangers).
Always carry appropriate gear, inform others of your plans, and be prepared to turn back or seek shelter if conditions deteriorate. In emergencies, call 000.
No warranty is made regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of this information. Use at your own discretion.
Overview (4-Day Summary):
March has brought around 160mm of rain to Mount Read, the closest weather station to the Overland Track. We are beginning to see temperatures drop as the amount of daylight starts to dwindle into the Winter. An approaching cold front will dictate this weeks weather on the track, bringing with it a rain event on Tuesday. There looks to be patchy pockets of rain in its wake. I imagine that the track will be bathed in low cloud for the week until the arrival of a high pressure system on Friday.
There is low confidence in Wednesday’s forecast, different forecasting models are suggesting widely varying rain amounts. The bureau of meteorology is covering all bases, suggesting 4-15mm on Tuesday and 2-10mm on Wednesday
I will do my best to provide some more concise information below!
Daily Breakdown:
Day 1: Monday 23rd of March 2026
Temperature: Highs of 15–17°C. Overnight lows of 12°C.
Wind: Very little throughout day. Initially Westeries, turning North easterly with cold front
Morning: W at 8–10 km/h.
Afternoon: NE at 5 km/h.
Precipitation: 1-3.5mm forecast. Seeing various amounts of rainfall being predicted over different forecasting models. The BOM models are suggesting afternoon rain (3mm) between 1pm and 4pm. Other models are suggesting no rain during those times. There is consistently 2-5mm of rain forecast during Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Weather Systems: Arrival of cold front in evening.
Day 2: Tuesday 24th of March 2026
Temperature: Highs of 13–16°C. Overnight lows of 12°C.
Wind: Light North Easterlies
Morning: NE at 5km/h.
Afternoon: NE at 10km/h.
Precipitation: 6-8mm forecast. Again, lots of inconsistency across models. Seems the weather systems are exceptionally difficult to forecast this week! Most likely is rain developing in the late morning, building until around 5pm then dropping off into the night.
Weather Systems: Pressure dropping throughout day.
Day 3: Wednesday 25th of March 2026
Temperature: Highs of 14–17 °C. Overnight lows of 6–9°C.
Wind: Light Northerlies
Morning: N at 11-13 km/h.
Afternoon: NE at 13–16 km/h..
Precipitation: 2-6mm forecast. More likely in the afternoon. It looks to me that’ll it will be drizzly all day with periods more intense than others. Likely very low cloud throughout.
Weather Systems: Pressure continuing to drop.
Day 4: Thursday 26th of March 2026
Temperature: Highs of 6–9 °C. Overnight lows of 2–3°C.
Wind: South westerlies building as days go on.
Morning: SW at 8–11 km/h.
Afternoon: SW at 15 km/h.
Precipitation: 2mm forecast – Similar to Wednesday. Low cloud and persistent but light rain.
Weather Systems: Consistently low pressure.
Advice from a Guide:
There is plenty of water in the creeks at the moment, you can reduce water weight by topping up as you go, check your map to identify river crossings.
Make sure you have your waterproof layering nailed this week. Pick up some dish-washing gloves to go over your normal pair, they are completely waterproof and very cheap!
Make sure you have a mid layer that will still keep you warm if you get wet, fleece or wool is ideal.
Stick to the track and embrace any mud you come across. If you try to step around the mud you’ll widen the track and kill the plants you tread on.
This is not a forecast conducive to any summits! Low cloud can lead to dis-orientation and wet rocks will increase risk of slips, trips and falls.
For further explanation of the weather systems referenced in this forecast, check out my explainer article.
Tasmanian Weather Systems: What They Look Like — and Mean — on the Ground