Overland Track Weather - 27th to 30th March | Freezing Southerlies
Overland Track Forecast: Pelion Hut Area
Disclaimer & Safety Waiver Important: Read Before Using These Forecasts.
These weather outlooks are provided by an amateur enthusiast with a high level of interest in meteorology and extensive on-track experience as a hiking guide. I am not a qualified or professional meteorologist, and these forecasts are not official predictions.
They are interpretive insights based on multiple weather models, personal observations, and knowledge of local microclimates on the Overland Track. Weather in Tasmania's mountains is highly variable and can change rapidly—forecasts can be wrong, and conditions on the ground may differ significantly.
By reading or using this information, you acknowledge and agree tha
All hiking and outdoor activities involve inherent risks, including exposure to severe weather, hypothermia, slips on wet/icy terrain, wind-related hazards, dehydration, and other dangers.
You participate entirely at your own risk.
This content is for informational and planning purposes only—it does not constitute professional weather advice, safety guarantees, or liability for any decisions you make.
You must independently verify conditions with official sources (e.g., Bureau of Meteorology at bom.gov.au, Tasmania Parks & Wildlife Service alerts, and local rangers).
Always carry appropriate gear, inform others of your plans, and be prepared to turn back or seek shelter if conditions deteriorate. In emergencies, call 000.
No warranty is made regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of this information. Use at your own discretion.
Overview (4-Day Summary):
As I write this Severe Tropical Cyclone ‘Narelle’ sits just off the Pilbara and a big east coast low is nearing the coast of New South Wales and Victoria. In-between all of that is a high pressure system pushing its way up into the Bight. Over the next few days it will drift across Tasmania.
After last weeks wet and low confidence forecast, this high pressure system will bring atmospheric stability to Tasmania’s high places. As a bushwalker this is brilliant, because we know what to expect! This week that is very little rain, cold overnight temperatures and day temperatures increasing daily until Monday. Additionally, it looks like the track will be bathed in low cloud for the bulk of the forecast.
I will do my best to provide some more concise information below!
Daily Breakdown:
Day 1: Friday 27rd of March 2026
Temperature: Highs of 6–9°C. Overnight lows of 6-8°C.
Wind: Strong Southerlies bringing cool temps throughout day, only dropping at night.
Morning: S at 15–24 km/h.
Afternoon: S at 15 - 22km/h.
Precipitation: None forecast. Reasonable chance of a cloudless day, thick cloud forming with onset of night.
Weather Systems: Pressure slowly rising through the day.
Day 2: Saturday 28th of March 2026
Temperature: Highs of 11–14°C. Overnight lows of 4-6°C.
Wind: Light Southerlies
Morning: S at 8-10km/h.
Afternoon: S at 8-14km/h.
Precipitation: None forecast. Thick morning cloud, potentially living high enough in the afternoon to reveal some peaks.
Weather Systems: High Pressure.
Day 3: Sunday 29th of March 2026
Temperature: Highs of 11–12 °C. Overnight lows of 6°C.
Wind: Very light Westerlies, turning South easterlies in the afternoon.
Morning: W at 4-7 km/h.
Afternoon: SW at 8–12 km/h..
Precipitation: 0.4-0.8mm
Very small amount has been forecast, falling in the afternoon/evening. Not all forecasting models are predicting it either.
Likely to change closer to the date.
Weather Systems: High Pressure. Low cloud all day, with arrival of some high cloud in the morning.
Day 4: Monday 30th of March 2026
Temperature: Highs of 13–15 °C. Overnight lows of 8–9°C.
Wind: Very little, shifting directionally though day. No confidence on direction. Models are all over the place! Light enough to make little difference.
Morning: 5 km/h.
Afternoon: 5 km/h.
Precipitation: None forecast.
Weather Systems: High pressure. Low cloud in the morning, burning off to reveal spreading high cloud.
Advice from a Guide:
There is plenty of water in the creeks at the moment, you can reduce water weight by topping up as you go, check your map to identify river crossings.
Make sure you have a mid layer that will still keep you warm and not overheat when walking. Cold enough in the mornings to be starting the day walking in a thermal or mid-layer depending on preference.
There will likely be mud around after last weeks rain. Stick to the track and embrace any mud you come across. If you try to step around the mud you’ll widen the track and kill the plants you tread on.
You’ll likely wake up slicked with condensation this week if you’re in your tents. Bring a chux cloth to wipe down the inside of you’re tent when you wake up. If planning to sleep in tents all week, consider a synthetic sleeping bag.
As far as summits this week. Friday and Monday are your best bets. Low cloud can be dis-orienting for novice navigators and should be avoided depending on experience level.
For further explanation of the weather systems referenced in this forecast, check out my explainer article.
Tasmanian Weather Systems: What They Look Like — and Mean — on the Ground
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