Overland Track Weather - 22nd to 25th of February 2026 | Sunday Cold Front
21 Feb
Overland Track Forecast: Pelion Hut Area
Disclaimer & Safety Waiver Important: Read Before Using These Forecasts
These weather outlooks are provided by an amateur enthusiast with a high level of interest in meteorology and extensive on-track experience as a hiking guide. I am not a qualified or professional meteorologist, and these forecasts are not official predictions.
They are interpretive insights based on multiple weather models, personal observations, and knowledge of local microclimates on the Overland Track. Weather in Tasmania's mountains is highly variable and can change rapidly—forecasts can be wrong, and conditions on the ground may differ significantly.
By reading or using this information, you acknowledge and agree that:
All hiking and outdoor activities involve inherent risks, including exposure to severe weather, hypothermia, slips on wet/icy terrain, wind-related hazards, dehydration, and other dangers.
You participate entirely at your own risk.
This content is for informational and planning purposes only—it does not constitute professional weather advice, safety guarantees, or liability for any decisions you make.
You must independently verify conditions with official sources (e.g., Bureau of Meteorology at bom.gov.au, Tasmania Parks & Wildlife Service alerts, and local rangers).
Always carry appropriate gear, inform others of your plans, and be prepared to turn back or seek shelter if conditions deteriorate. In emergencies, call 000.
No warranty is made regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of this information. Use at your own discretion.
Overview (4-Day Summary): It has been a wet few days in the lead up to this forecast. A cold front that arrived on Tuesday 17th of February brought around 45mm of rain to Mount Read, the closest weather station to the Overland Track. Brace yourself for another cold front crossing the state on Sunday afternoon. Following that, the forecast is looking cool but sunny.
There is high confidence in the arrival of the cold front; however, the timing is likely to shift closer to the event. As of Saturday 21st February, it is expected between 3 pm and 6 pm on Sunday 22nd.
The higher pressure arriving later in the forecast will force cloud and cold air into valleys during the night and over mountains into the morning. Expect plenty of Cumulus humilis cloud (fluffy cauliflower-shaped clouds that are wider than they are tall). On Sunday, keep an eye on the clouds with the approaching front—they will likely grow taller than wide, transitioning into rain-producing Cumulus congestus and Cumulonimbus. You may also see lenticular clouds (UFO-shaped) from pre-frontal lift.
Daily Breakdown:
Day 1: Sunday February 22nd, 2026
Temperature: Highs of 15–19 °C. Overnight lows of 5–6 °C.
Wind: Northerlies building throughout the day. Gusting up to 70km/h with the arrival of the cold front.
Morning: N at 14–17 km/h.
Afternoon: N at 18–26 km/h.
Precipitation: 5-21 mm forecast. Interestingly, the BOM’s ACCESS-C VT forecasting model is suggesting significantly less rain than all other models. It is a model that is recognised for its accuracy in Tasmania, but it is in conflict with other models for this rain event. I would err on the side of caution with this forecast and plan for 20mm of rain.
Weather Systems: Arrival of cold front in afternoon/evening.
Day 2: Monday February 23rd, 2026
Temperature: Highs of 12–15 °C. Overnight lows of 3–6 °C.
Wind: South westerlies strong in the morning, but lessening as day goes on.
Morning: SW at 10-19 km/h.
Afternoon: SW at 6–14 km/h.
Precipitation: 0 mm forecast.
Weather Systems: Pressure building throughout day.
Day 3: Tuesday February 24th 2026
Temperature: Highs of 16–20 °C. Overnight lows of 4–7 °C.
Wind: North to north-westerlies.
Morning: N at 6–10 km/h.
Afternoon: NW at 13–16 km/h..
Precipitation: 0 mm forecast.
Weather Systems: Stable average pressure.
Day 4: Wednesday February 25th, 2026
Temperature: Highs of 14–16 °C. Overnight lows of 6–7 °C.
Wind: South to south easterlies
Morning: S at 8–10 km/h.
Afternoon: SW at 10–14 km/h.
Precipitation: 0mm forecast
Weather Systems: Stable high pressure
Advice from a Guide:
Creeks should be flowing more regularly after recent rain over the last few days. Mount Read weather station (42 km from New Pelion Hut) recorded around mm across 18–19th of February. Sunday rain will keep creeks up.
Wear long sleeves during the day and lather up with sunscreen/zinc throughout.
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday look decent for attempting a summit.
I would not suggest any peaks on Sunday, the front's timing is changeable, and it's dangerous to gain elevation into deteriorating weather.
Some forecasting models are suggesting early rain on Sunday, as early as 10am. Don’t get caught out and plan for a full day of rain.
For further explanation of the weather systems referenced in this forecast, check out my explainer article.