Overland Track Weather - 14th to 17th of February 2026 | Cold Front Incoming
Overland Track Forecast: Pelion Hut Area
Disclaimer & Safety Waiver Important: Read Before Using These Forecasts
These weather outlooks are provided by an amateur enthusiast with a high level of interest in meteorology and extensive on-track experience as a hiking guide. I am not a qualified or professional meteorologist, and these forecasts are not official predictions.
They are interpretive insights based on multiple weather models, personal observations, and knowledge of local microclimates on the Overland Track. Weather in Tasmania's mountains is highly variable and can change rapidly—forecasts can be wrong, and conditions on the ground may differ significantly.
By reading or using this information, you acknowledge and agree that:
All hiking and outdoor activities involve inherent risks, including exposure to severe weather, hypothermia, slips on wet/icy terrain, wind-related hazards, dehydration, and other dangers.
You participate entirely at your own risk.
This content is for informational and planning purposes only—it does not constitute professional weather advice, safety guarantees, or liability for any decisions you make.
You must independently verify conditions with official sources (e.g., Bureau of Meteorology at bom.gov.au, Tasmania Parks & Wildlife Service alerts, and local rangers).
Always carry appropriate gear, inform others of your plans, and be prepared to turn back or seek shelter if conditions deteriorate. In emergencies, call 000.
No warranty is made regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of this information. Use at your own discretion.
Overview (4-Day Summary): At present, a high pressure system is sitting across much of Tasmania. This will bring stable and warm weather to the Overland Track. On Tuesday afternoon/evening, a cold front will cross the state, bringing up to 20 mm of rain.
There is high confidence in the arrival of the cold front; however, the timing is likely to shift closer to the event. As of Friday 13 February, it is expected between 2 pm and 8 pm on Tuesday 17th.
The high pressure will force cloud and cold air into valleys during the night and over mountains into the morning. Expect plenty of Cumulus humilis cloud (fluffy cauliflower-shaped clouds that are wider than they are tall). On Tuesday, keep an eye on the clouds with the approaching front—they will likely grow taller than wide, transitioning into rain-producing Cumulus congestus and Cumulonimbus. You may also see lenticular clouds (UFO-shaped) from pre-frontal lift.
Daily Breakdown:
Day 1: Saturday February 14, 2026
Temperature: Highs of 16–20 °C. Overnight lows of 6–10 °C.
Wind: Light northerlies throughout the day. Slim chance of reaching 15 km/h.
Morning: N at 5–10 km/h.
Afternoon: N at 5–10 km/h.
Precipitation: 0 mm forecast.
Weather Systems: Stable – high pressure.
Day 2: Sunday February 15, 2026
Temperature: Highs of 18–22 °C. Overnight lows of 7–9 °C.
Wind: Light north-easterlies in the morning, building into the afternoon.
Morning: NE at 5 km/h.
Afternoon: NE at 12–15 km/h.
Precipitation: 0 mm forecast.
Weather Systems: Stable – high pressure.
Day 3: Monday February 16, 2026
Temperature: Highs of 17–22 °C. Overnight lows of 8–12 °C.
Wind: North-easterlies, building into the afternoon.
Morning: NE at 8–10 km/h.
Afternoon: NE at 18–23 km/h, gusting up to 50 km/h.
Precipitation: 0 mm forecast.
Weather Systems: Pressure slowly dropping through the day.
Day 4: Tuesday February 17, 2026
Temperature: Highs of 16–21 °C. Overnight lows of 6–8 °C.
Wind: Strong northerlies with the arrival of the cold front.
Morning: NE at 10–13 km/h.
Afternoon: N at 19–28 km/h, gusting up to 50 km/h.
Precipitation: Up to 20 mm arriving with the cold front (typically most rain at the head of the front). After passage, rain will become more sporadic and patchy.
Weather Systems: Arrival of cold front expected between 2–8 pm.
Advice from a Guide:
Creeks should be flowing more regularly after recent rain over the last few days. Mount Read weather station (42 km from New Pelion Hut) recorded 40.6 mm across 12–13 February.
Wear long sleeves during the day and lather up with sunscreen/zinc throughout.
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday look decent for attempting a summit—just watch for wind gusts on Monday afternoon.
I would not suggest any peaks on Tuesday; the front's timing is changeable, and it's dangerous to gain elevation into deteriorating weather.
For further explanation of the weather systems referenced in this forecast, check out my explainer article.