Overland Track Weather - 17th to 20th January 2026

Written By Edward Philp

Overland Track Forecast: Pelion Hut Area

Disclaimer & Safety Waiver Important: Read Before Using These Forecasts

These weather outlooks are provided by an amateur enthusiast with a high level of interest in meteorology and extensive on-track experience as a hiking guide. I am not a qualified or professional meteorologist, and these forecasts are not official predictions.

They are interpretive insights based on multiple weather models, personal observations, and knowledge of local microclimates on the Overland Track. Weather in Tasmania's mountains is highly variable and can change rapidly—forecasts can be wrong, and conditions on the ground may differ significantly.

By reading or using this information, you acknowledge and agree that:

  • All hiking and outdoor activities involve inherent risks, including exposure to severe weather, hypothermia, slips on wet/icy terrain, wind-related hazards, dehydration, and other dangers.

  • You participate entirely at your own risk.

  • This content is for informational and planning purposes only—it does not constitute professional weather advice, safety guarantees, or liability for any decisions you make.

  • You must independently verify conditions with official sources (e.g., Bureau of Meteorology at bom.gov.au, Tasmania Parks & Wildlife Service alerts, and local rangers).

  • Always carry appropriate gear, inform others of your plans, and be prepared to turn back or seek shelter if conditions deteriorate. In emergencies, call 000.

No warranty is made regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of this information. Use at your own discretion.

Overview (4-Day Summary): There is a high pressure system centred approximately 800 km southeast of Pelion Hut. This system is driving north-easterly winds across the next few days and bringing stable weather. I expect mostly sunny days, with low cloud in valleys and over mountains during the nights and into the morning.

Temperatures are high for the Overland Track—the 18–24 °C days will feel exceptionally hot and come with their own extreme UV risks. Over the last few weeks, the creeks have been drying up quickly, adding to the distance between reliable water sources. With a forecast like this, it's important to carry plenty of water and drink regularly, particularly if you're planning any mountainous side trips.

Pressure is slowly dropping through the forecast. Bringing higher chance of convective showers on Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

Daily Breakdown:

  • Day 1: Saturday January 17, 2026

    • Temperature: Highs of 18–20 °C. Overnight lows of 4–6 °C.

    • Wind: Light easterlies in the morning, turning north-easterly and increasing into the afternoon.

      • Morning: E at 4–9 km/h.

      • Afternoon: NE at 12–15 km/h, gusting up to 35–40 km/h.

    • Precipitation: 0 mm forecast.

  • Day 2: Sunday January 18, 2026

    • Temperature: Highs of 14–20 °C. Overnight lows of 3–7 °C. (Significant variation across different forecasting models.)

    • Wind: Light easterlies in the morning, turning north-easterly by mid-morning and becoming gusty.

      • Morning: E at 4–9 km/h, gusting up to 15–30 km/h.

      • Afternoon: NE at 13–25 km/h, gusting up to 40–60 km/h.

    • Precipitation: 0 mm forecast.

    • Weather Systems: Stable – high pressure.

  • Day 3: Monday January 19, 2026

    • Temperature: Highs of 15–19 °C. Overnight lows of 7–9 °C.

    • Wind: Mixed morning forecast, but afternoon looks consistent. Potential for strong gusts in both morning and afternoon. North-easterlies overall.

      • Morning: NE at 10–23 km/h, gusting up to 30–60 km/h (variable forecast at this stage).

      • Afternoon: NE at 13–24 km/h, gusting up to 40–60 km/h.

    • Precipitation: 0–2 mm forecast. Only one forecasting model is suggesting rain (2 mm between 4 pm and 6 pm). Watch for rising columns of cumulus clouds during the afternoon—the taller they rise, the more chance of an afternoon shower.

    • Weather Systems: Pressure slowly dropping through the day.

  • Day 4: Tuesday January 20, 2026

    • Temperature: Highs of 16–23 °C. Overnight lows of 6–12 °C.

    • Wind: Extremely inconsistent forecast regarding direction (anything between NE and SE). Light in both morning and afternoon.

      • Morning: 4–6 km/h.

      • Afternoon: 4–8 km/h.

    • Precipitation: Inconsitent across forecasting models. There does look to a be a drop in pressure into the afternoon. This could lead to some convective showers, that are difficult to predict location. It likely that there will be some rain about, whether it rains exactly where you are standing or 2kms away is another story.

    • Weather Systems: Pressure slowly dropping through the day.

Advice from a Guide:

  • Creeks are drying up quickly—make sure you carry plenty of water and drink regularly. Check your maps for creek locations and check in with rangers regarding suitable refill stops for the day.

  • I would be wearing long sleeves during the day and lathered up with sunscreen/zinc throughout.

  • Saturday and Sunday are decent enough forecasts to try for Ossa or Pelion East.

  • Watch for wind gusts on Monday between 11am and 2pm

  • I would not suggest either of those peaks on Tuesday, it is dangerous to gain elevation into deteriorating weather.

Edward Philp